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1. Identity statement Reference Type Conference Paper (Conference Proceedings) Site mtc-m21d.sid.inpe.br Holder Code isadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S Identifier 8JMKD3MGP3W34T/487DP9S Repository sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21d/2022/12.14.23.01 Metadata Repository sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21d/2022/12.14.23.01.45 Metadata Last Update 2023:01.03.16.46.28 (UTC) administrator Secondary Key INPE--PRE/ Citation Key CavalcantiBarr:2022:SuPrEx Title Subseasonal Predictions of Extreme Precipitation over South America from S2S ECMWF Model Year 2022 Access Date 2024, May 14 Secondary Type PRE CI 2. Context Author 1 Cavalcanti, Iracema Fonseca de Albuquerque 2 Barreto, Naurinete de Jesus da Costa Resume Identifier 1 8JMKD3MGP5W/3C9JHDE Group 1 DIMNT-CGCT-INPE-MCTI-GOV-BR 2 CST-CST-DIPGR-INPE-MCTI-GOV-BR Affiliation 1 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) 2 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) Author e-Mail Address 1 iracema.cavalcanti@gmail.com 2 naurinete.barreto@inpe.br Conference Name AGU Fall Meeting Conference Location Chicago, IL Date 12-16 Dec. 2022 Publisher AGU History (UTC) 2022-12-14 23:01:45 :: simone -> administrator :: 2023-01-03 16:46:28 :: administrator -> simone :: 2022 3. Content and structure Is the master or a copy? is the master Content Stage completed Transferable 1 Content Type External Contribution Abstract Wet and dry conditions in Southeast and South Brazil produce social and economic impacts, as these regions have large population, agriculture activities and hydroelectricity power generation. Seasonal predictions have been able to alert for the precipitation conditions in the South region, due to the influence of ENSO, which is well predicted by climate models. However, Southeast Brazil, located in a transition region between Northeast, which is also affected by ENSO, and South, is less predictable at the seasonal timescale. Predictions at subseasonal timescale have been studied following the Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) project, with the availability of hindcasts of several global models. In the present study, reforecasting data from S2S ECMWF model are used to analyze predictions of extreme precipitation (wet and dry cases) in Southeast and South Brazil identified with GPCP data. Weekly averages of observed precipitation anomalies were obtained for DJF from 1999 to 2010 and the six more extreme wet and dry cases were selected to verify the predictions. The analyses were performed using an ensemble of four members of the ECMWF reforecasts for the weeks predicted two weeks in advance. Observations show that extreme precipitation in Southeast and South Brazil present a dipole characteristic, with opposite anomalies. Hindcasts produced by S2S ECMWF model indicated similar patterns of extremes, for wet and dry cases occurring in Southeast and South Brazil. Although the model patterns are similar to observations, the intensity and extension of precipitation anomalies are lower and smaller in the model. The timeseries of normalized precipitation anomalies indicate that the sign of anomalies predicted by the model was consistent with the observed sign, although the intensity was not the same in the majority of cases. The model was also able to represent the wavetrains over the Pacific and South America, associated with the anomalies, and features of Madden-Julian Oscillation, which can provide a complementary information to the subseasonal predictions. Area MET Arrangement 1 urlib.net > BDMCI > Fonds > Produção pgr ATUAIS > CST > Subseasonal Predictions of... Arrangement 2 urlib.net > BDMCI > Fonds > Produção a partir de 2021 > CGCT > Subseasonal Predictions of... doc Directory Content there are no files source Directory Content there are no files agreement Directory Content agreement.html 14/12/2022 20:01 1.0 KiB  4. Conditions of access and use User Group simone Visibility shown Update Permission not transferred 5. Allied materials Next Higher Units 8JMKD3MGPCW/449U4PL 8JMKD3MGPCW/46KUATE Host Collection urlib.net/www/2021/06.04.03.40 6. Notes Empty Fields archivingpolicy archivist booktitle callnumber copyholder copyright creatorhistory descriptionlevel dissemination doi e-mailaddress edition editor format isbn issn keywords label language lineage mark mirrorrepository nextedition notes numberoffiles numberofvolumes orcid organization pages parameterlist parentrepositories previousedition previouslowerunit progress project publisheraddress readergroup readpermission rightsholder schedulinginformation secondarydate secondarymark serieseditor session shorttitle size sponsor subject targetfile tertiarymark tertiarytype type url versiontype volume 7. Description control e-Mail (login) simone update

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